A confidential CIA assessment provided to U.S. policymakers found that Iran may be able to withstand a U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing severe economic hardship, according to The Washington Post.
The reported assessment gives a more restrained picture of Iran’s military and economic position than President Donald Trump has offered publicly during the war.
Trump gave a different account Wednesday, telling reporters that Iran’s missile capabilities had been “mostly decimated” and that Tehran had “probably 18, 19 percent” remaining, according to the Post.
The Post reported that Tehran still holds substantial ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of U.S. and Israeli bombardment. A U.S. official familiar with the assessment told the Post that Iran has kept about 75% of its prewar mobile missile launchers and about 70% of its prewar missile stockpile.
U.S. intelligence also found evidence that Iran has reopened nearly all of its underground storage facilities, repaired some damaged missiles, and assembled new missiles that were almost complete when the war began, the report said.
The Post said three current U.S. officials and one former U.S. official confirmed the outlines of the intelligence assessment. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
One U.S. official quoted by the Post said Iran’s leadership had become “more radical, determined, and increasingly confident” that it could outlast U.S. political pressure and crush internal resistance.
“Similar regimes have endured for years in the face of sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars,” the same official said, suggesting Iran could absorb economic pain longer than the administration has publicly indicated.
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