WASHINGTON — A week out from the Nov. 3 midterms, Democrats hold an eight-point lead over Republicans among likely voters in the fight for Congress. The numbers come from the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, released Tuesday.
Put the two parties head to head and likely voters choose the Democrat in their district by 52% to 44%.
Among registered voters the gap is a little wider, 10 points. It was 12 points in September. Marist treats that shift as inside the margin of error, and Democrats have led in every Marist survey on the question going back to last November.
Much of the story runs through President Donald Trump. Just 40% of likely voters approve of his job performance. Disapproval is at 59%, and the intensity sits on that side: 53% strongly disapprove, against 24% who strongly approve.
Registered voters are harder on him still — 38% approval, 61% disapproval. PBS News noted the disapproval figure is the highest Marist has ever recorded for Trump across both of his terms, while cautioning that the move itself falls within the margin of error.
What is the vote about? For 44% of likely voters, it is mostly a vote against Trump. Only 21% called it a vote for him. The rest, 35%, said he does not figure much in their choice.
Independents help explain the Democratic lead. They favor Democrats by 13 points, and they give Trump poor marks: 34% approval, 64% disapproval.
“The underlying factor is that Democrats are getting more Republicans than Republicans are getting Democrats,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “So there’s a net advantage just from some partisan crossover, not enormous.”
Add in those independents, Miringoff said, and Democrats “should have a good night.”
Two issues dominate, and they are nearly tied. Cost of living leads at 34% among likely voters. Preserving democracy follows at 33%. Immigration, the centerpiece of Trump’s second-term agenda, trails at 12%, and nothing else reached double digits.
For many voters the cost question is not abstract. Nearly four in 10 likely voters, 38%, said their family finances have worsened over the past year. Fifteen percent said things have improved. The largest group, 44%, said their finances are about where they were.
The trend among registered voters is moving the wrong way for the White House. Forty percent now say their finances have deteriorated, up from 34% just a month ago in September.
Trump, for his part, has put himself at the center of the Republican campaign, rallying in more than a dozen states since mid-September and telling voters to treat the election as a verdict on him. Miringoff called that an odd play for a president whose approval is underwater. “If your approval rating is upside down, the president doesn’t usually say, ‘I’m on the ballot,’” he said.
Some of the Democratic edge may already be locked in. Roughly one likely voter in five has voted, and early voters back Democrats by 68% to 31%. Citing the University of Florida Election Lab, PBS News put the national early total above 30 million ballots, cast by mail and in person.
Turnout energy favors Democrats, too, though both sides are engaged. Eighty-four percent of likely voters described themselves as enthusiastic about voting. Among Democrats, 71% said they are very enthusiastic. The Republican figure was 61%.
For all the arguing over election rules this year, most voters still trust their own system. Confidence that state and local officials will run a fair and accurate election stands at 77% among likely voters. And 81% said a losing candidate should accept the result once the votes are counted, definitely or probably.
Marist interviewed 1,289 registered voters by phone, text and online on Oct. 19 and 20. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters. For likely voters it is plus or minus 3.8 points.
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