Democratic Senate candidates lead in all seven battleground states in the final New York Times and Siena polls, the Siena Research Institute said, with leads of 5 to 11 points in five states and much tighter margins in the other two.
The surveys were conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1 among likely voters. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%, the widest margin in the seven states.
Texas has Paxton behind. Talarico, the Democrat, is on 50% and Paxton on 43% in a state that last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1988.
Democrats also lead in Maine, Kansas and Ohio. Troy Jackson is ahead of Sen. Susan Collins 51% to 45% in Maine. Adam Hamilton leads Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44% in Kansas, and Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 44% in Ohio.
The last two races are close. Peltola is two points up on Sullivan in Alaska, 48% to 46%. Iowa is the tightest of the lot, with Turek on 48% and Hinson on 47%, and the institute calls that one virtually tied.
“While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility,” Levy said, “with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible.”
That matters because the Senate sits at 53-47 for Republicans. Democrats have to flip four seats to take it, Reuters noted, and all of it gets settled on Tuesday, Nov. 3, when voters decide 35 Senate seats.
None of this is exact. Sampling error runs from 3.4 points in Texas up to 5.0 points in Alaska, and the seven polls took in 5,708 likely voters between them.
Levy said the governor races in the same states show Democrats up by 8 points or more in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan. In Ohio, Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy by six points, and the Kansas and Texas governor races are too close to call, he said.
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