DUBLIN — The planes, the motorcades, and the barricaded streets came first. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plane landed at Baldonnel military air base shortly before 4:15 p.m. on Wednesday, and by about 5:40 p.m., he was in Government Buildings, shaking hands with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin, according to Reuters. The real story, however, was yet to come.
Kyiv expects some progress in the Russia talks this year. At least that is how Zelenskyy put it. But the catch is a large part of it depends not on Kyiv.
“We are living through these massive attacks. Of course, we want to get results by the end of this year, and of course, we will be doing everything to make that happen”
These talks became the first tripartite ones since February and the sole result is an agreement on prisoner release. Nothing else was announced.
To Moscow next
President Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are due at the Kremlin on Thursday. Once they finish the meeting with President Vladimir Putin, they fly on to Dublin and report back to Zelenskyy.
“A lot will depend today on the format of the dialogue of the American and Russian sides tomorrow,” Zelenskyy said.
There are two proposals that will have to wait till the meeting in Moscow takes place. Both of them were suggested in Abu Dhabi. Kyiv proposed a ceasefire at sea and an energy truce. Zelenskyy said that the Russian delegation did not have a mandate to answer those proposals, which is why both of them have to wait for their turn in Moscow.
“Nevertheless, we agreed that the American side would meet with the Russian leader and that all these issues would be raised there. Therefore, I expect to receive a response, at the very least,” he said.
Prisoners may move first
The prisoners’ exchange is the only track that looks like it may start soon. The talks included the discussion of exchange of 1,000 or even 1,200 prisoners. Kushner told journalists that the envoys will “finalize the numbers” in Moscow.
“That would be a very positive thing, and I don’t see any reasons for Russia to not accept that proposal,” Zelenskyy said.
But Kyiv also has its older offer of an “all-for-all” exchange on the table.
The Donbas dispute
Land is where the discussions got stuck. As Zelenskyy said, Washington raised the issue of Donbas again and again. And according to the American side, Ukraine should leave this area of Donetsk and Luhansk and agree on the withdrawal as the price for the end of the conflict. Zelenskyy’s answer was brief: impossible. These questions, according to him, belong to the leaders’ discussion table, not the negotiation table.
Europe is at this table too, in his opinion. Ending the war without Europe’s participation “would be impossible,” he said.
And Zelenskyy kept his expectations low in public. A “window of opportunity” for peace before 2027 does exist, according to him. And he also called himself “skeptical” in these statements.
“We know who we are dealing with and that the Russian side will not view everything favorably. But is progress possible? Yes,” he said.
What the negotiators brought back
David Arakhamia, who negotiates on behalf of Ukraine, describes the talks in Abu Dhabi as tough ones. According to him, the Russian delegation appeared with “strict directives.” Despite that, he said that there is “good momentum” towards reaching an agreement before the year ends.
Moscow’s chief negotiator sounded almost the same, but to a certain extent. Vladimir Medinsky told Russian state television that a peace deal was closer after the talks. But according to him, a lot depends on Ukraine and the American stance.
Kushner was more straightforward about the atmosphere. There is no trust between the sides, he said. But he still calls Abu Dhabi “a good first step.”
Drone cooperation with Ireland
The Dublin visit was not solely about the talks. Zelenskyy and Martin confirmed that Ireland and Ukraine are working on a memorandum concerning drone technology and manufacturing. Ireland, according to Martin, could benefit from the Ukrainian experience in unmanned drones for maritime security. But this cooperation is at an early stage.
“We are ready for co-production with Ireland, and we expect our drone deal with Ireland to become operational,” Zelenskyy said.
He is in the Irish capital for the ninth European Political Community summit, which starts on Thursday, with bilateral and multilateral meetings with about 20 leaders packed into two days.