RICHMOND, Va. — Virginians cast 1,634,193 ballots early, and in nine of the state’s 11 congressional districts the early voters were more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) estimates.
Statewide, the district figures add up to 919,087 likely Democratic early voters (56.2%) and 567,620 likely Republican ones (34.7%). The remaining 147,486 early voters, or 9%, were classed as unknown.
The count covers mail ballots that had been returned and early in-person ballots cast so far. VPAP published the district breakdown on Nov. 2.
Republicans Lead Only in Districts 6 and 9
The 9th District was the strongest for Republicans. Likely Republicans made up 53% of its 118,798 early voters, against 38.1% likely Democrats.
In the 6th District, likely Republicans led 48.8% to 42.7% among 137,723 early voters. It was the only other district where Republicans were ahead.
District 1 was the closest of the Democratic-led districts: 48.5% likely Democrats to 44% likely Republicans. It also turned in more early ballots than any other district — 202,595, which is 12.4% of all early ballots cast in Virginia.
The 5th District was next closest. Likely Democrats led there 51.3% to 41.3% among 160,574 early voters.
Widest Margins in Districts 8 and 3
The 8th District had the widest margin. Likely Democrats were 72.5% of its early voters and likely Republicans 15.4%, among 154,709 ballots cast early.
In the 3rd District, likely Democrats were 70.3% and likely Republicans 20.7%. Its 99,672 early ballots were the fewest of any district.
Likely Democrats were 67.1% in the 4th District, against 25% likely Republicans, and 65.9% in the 11th District, against 24.3%. The districts cast 139,665 and 162,890 early ballots.
In the remaining districts, likely Democrats were 56.6% in the 10th, 55.1% in the 7th and 53% in the 2nd. Those districts cast 158,163, 143,638 and 155,766 early ballots.
Estimates, Not Counted Votes
Virginia does not require voters to register by party, and ballots are not counted until Election Day. To estimate the party of early voters, VPAP matched voter IDs in the Virginia Department of Elections Daily Absentee List with data from L2 Political.
L2 Political, a political data firm, estimates a voter’s likely party from factors such as past participation in primary elections and demographic information, according to VPAP. Voters who were not estimated as either Democrat or Republican are the ones VPAP lists as unknown.
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