Exit Polls Put Iotova on Course to Win Bulgaria Presidency

Four exit polls, one winner — and a low turnout in a vote shaped by the war in Ukraine

SOFIA, Bulgaria — Exit polls reported by Bulgarian National Radio gave Sunday’s presidential runoff to acting President Iliana Iotova. If the official count confirms them, she will be Bulgaria’s first elected female head of state.

The agencies working with the broadcaster differed only on the margin. Myara put the ticket of Iotova and her running mate, Kiril Valchev, at 51%, against 44.7% for Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev. Alpha Research had Iotova at 52.5% and Gyurov at 43.4%.

Two other agencies released similar numbers as the polls closed at 8 p.m. Market Links gave Iotova 50.7% to Gyurov’s 44%, and Trend put her at 51.6% against 43.4%, Bulgarian National Radio reported.

Turnout remained low. Participation came in at roughly 27% to 29% of registered voters, the exit polls suggested — barely better than the record-low 23% of a week earlier.

A race shaped by the war in Ukraine

The vote in Bulgaria, a member of both the European Union and NATO, turned largely on the war in Ukraine. It followed a month of drone attacks on merchant ships off the country’s Black Sea coast, attacks both candidates condemned.

Iotova favors dialogue with Moscow and opposes sending military aid to Ukraine. Gyurov, a banker and former caretaker prime minister backed by pro-Western, reformist parties, has long backed Kyiv. As premier, he signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine.

In a televised debate before the runoff, Gyurov faulted Iotova for not naming Russia as the source of the Black Sea attacks. “Russia must stop its aggression so that the next steps can be taken,” he said. Iotova has argued that more weapons for Ukraine bring only more destruction, and that peace has to be negotiated.

From acting president to a five-year term

Iotova has held the presidency since January, when Rumen Radev resigned to run for parliament. Radev won that race, became prime minister, and backed Iotova in the runoff.

Both candidates voted on Sunday. Gyurov said he had voted for “a secure, stable and European Bulgaria,” according to Reuters.

“I voted for Bulgaria to be a strong state in a strong Europe, but for Bulgaria to have its own foreign policy and a voice when it needs to stand up for what matters most — the national interest,”

— Iliana Iotova

What happens next

Sunday’s runoff was needed because no ticket won a majority on Oct. 25, when 27 tickets contested the presidency. Iotova led that round with about 35% of the vote, ahead of Gyurov on about 32%.

The presidency is largely ceremonial, and the winner is elected for a five-year term. Bulgarians abroad voted at polling stations in 60 countries, Bulgarian National Radio said, with voting set to end on the U.S. West Coast early on Monday, Bulgarian time.

The final official result is expected on Monday as the ballots are counted, according to Reuters. The Central Election Commission has three days from the vote to announce the final results.

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