WASHINGTON — Americans are voting early in numbers not seen before in a midterm, and nowhere is that clearer than in the states where the Senate will be decided, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
The AP counted more than 43 million ballots cast in person or returned by mail five days before Election Day. At the same point in 2022, the count was nearly 10 million lower. This year’s figures come from 47 states and Washington, D.C. Four years ago the count covered 48 states and the capital.
Start with Texas. By Wednesday, more than 6.3 million Texans had voted — a 50 percent jump from the 4.2 million recorded at the same stage in 2022. Harris County alone, which takes in Houston, went from 564,500 early voters four years ago to 862,700 this time.
Control of Congress is what is at stake on Tuesday, two years into President Donald Trump’s second term. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47 and also hold the House. In Texas, that fight runs through a Senate contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Early voting in person there ran for two weeks and ended Friday.
South Carolina’s numbers stand out for a different reason. Turnout there is up 83 percent, in a year when the state is picking both a governor and a successor to the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham.
The pattern repeats across the map, though not evenly. Maine is up 44 percent, with Republican Sen. Susan Collins running against Troy Jackson, who used to lead the state Senate for the Democrats. Kansas has cast roughly 83,000 more ballots than at this point in 2022, an increase of 34 percent, as Republican Sen. Roger Marshall defends his seat against Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor running as a Democrat. Michigan is up 32 percent.
Part of the Michigan story is access. Statewide early in-person voting is new there — voters approved it in a 2022 ballot measure, and this is the first midterm run under it. About 409,000 more people have voted than at this stage four years ago.
Party affiliation is where the numbers need care. Where states report it, Democrats account for about 6.8 million of the early ballots and Republicans for about 5.2 million. Plenty of early voters live in states that report no such breakdown. And none of it shows how anyone actually marked a ballot.
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