President Donald Trump’s job approval fell to 39%, its lowest level in the survey’s tracking since February 2025, while Democrats widened their congressional ballot lead, according to the October Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll.
The survey found 59% of registered voters disapproved of Trump’s performance. His approval stood at 42% in September.
Democrats led Republicans 52% to 48% among likely voters asked which party they would support for Congress if the election were held today. Democratic support stood at 51% in September.
Among independents and other likely voters, Democrats led 56% to 44%.
The Harris Poll and HarrisX surveyed 2,700 registered voters online Oct. 24-26.
Household Finances Worsen
Only 31% thought the country was on the right track, four percentage points below September’s figure. Another 59% said it was on the wrong track.
Respondents were less optimistic about the economy’s direction: 27% said it was on the right track. When asked about its strength, 43% called the economy strong, down from 48% a month earlier.
Half reported that their personal financial situation was getting worse. For 29%, it was improving.
Inflation and affordability ranked as the most important personal issue for 51%, up seven percentage points from September. It was the leading concern across all three party groups.
Trump received his lowest issue approval rating on inflation, at 33%. Approval stood at 34% each for the economy and tariffs and trade policy, compared with 44% each for immigration and fighting crime in cities.
Asked to choose who bore more responsibility for inflation over the past few years, 58% selected the Trump administration and its tariffs. Another 42% chose the Biden administration and its government spending.
In separate questions, 60% attributed the current economy mostly to Trump administration policies, and 54% said the economy was worse than when Biden was president.
Democrats in Congress led Trump and congressional Republicans 53% to 47% on trust to handle the economy. Democrats also led Republicans 55% to 45% on lowering the cost of living.
Ending Trump’s tariffs was the most frequently selected option for reducing inflation, at 36%. Regulating prices and price increases followed at 23%, then reducing government spending at 20%.
Both Parties Lose Ground
Republican Party approval fell to 41%, which the report described as its lowest level in five years. Democratic Party approval also declined, to 45%.
Congress remained at 32% approval, while disapproval rose two percentage points to 59%.
Several policies tested in the survey received much stronger support than Trump’s overall performance.
Lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low-income patients drew 84% support. Temporarily easing diesel fuel taxes and restrictions on red-dyed diesel to help farmers and truckers received 77%.
Deporting immigrants who were in the country illegally and had committed crimes drew 76% support. Requiring proof of citizenship and photo identification to register and vote in federal elections received 72%.
Providing $5,000 payments to every American adult to offset rising living costs drew 69% support. A 15% tariff on imports from all countries received 40% support, with 60% opposed.
Midterm Interest Grows
With the Nov. 3 elections approaching, 78% of registered voters said they definitely or probably would vote, up from 74% in September.
The share who had made up their minds about their choices rose nine percentage points to 59%. Another 23% were leaning toward candidates but could change their minds, while 12% remained undecided.
Some 56% believed Democrats winning at least one congressional chamber would be better for the country. Another 44% preferred Republicans keeping both the House and Senate.
Among respondents planning to vote Republican, 36% cited their support for Trump. Another 19% said they would vote Republican despite their feelings about him, while 38% said he was not a factor.
Asked about a Republican congressional candidate whom Trump personally endorsed and campaigned for, 39% of Republican and independent voters said they would be more likely to support that candidate. Another 27% said less likely.
The survey found 70% were confident the midterms would be conducted fairly and accurately. Asked whether Trump would accept the results if Republicans lost, 54% expected him to challenge them.
Opposition to Trump’s Handling of Iran and Ukraine
Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict drew 58% opposition and 42% support.
Asked how his handling of Iran affected their midterm preferences, 48% said it made them more likely to vote Democratic, compared with 31% who said Republican. Another 22% reported no effect.
On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 58% opposed Trump’s handling and 42% supported it.
Asked about Trump’s handling of the war, 46% said it made them more likely to vote Democratic and 28% said Republican. Another 26% reported no effect.
Some 68% believed Vladimir Putin was stalling rather than genuinely seeking to end the war.
The survey found 64% supported continuing weapons assistance to Ukraine and imposing further sanctions on Russia if Russia refused to negotiate and prolonged the bloodshed.
Responses differed on Russian fuel purchases. While 61% opposed buying Russian oil and diesel during the war, 54% supported a deal described in the questionnaire involving a temporary sanctions waiver for Russian diesel purchases.
Early Preferences for 2028
Kamala Harris led the Democratic presidential preference question with 34%, down five percentage points from September. Gavin Newsom followed at 20%.
Among Republicans, JD Vance led with 40%. Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio each received 21%.
The survey recruited respondents through opt-in online panels and weighted results for demographic characteristics, political affiliation and other factors.
The report lists a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level for the full sample. It does not provide a separate margin for the likely voters used in the congressional ballot results.
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