Moderna shares fell more than 25% on Thursday. Detailed late-stage results for the personalized melanoma vaccine it is developing with Merck set off the drop, and about $24 billion came off the company’s market value in one session, according to Reuters.
The stock was down 25.2% at $183.88, on pace for its steepest one-day percentage fall on record. Merck shares fell nearly 1%. The sell-off stopped a run that had lifted Moderna’s stock more than 500% this year.
The numbers themselves were strong. Intismeran, given with Merck’s immunotherapy Keytruda, cut the risk of cancer recurrence or death by 42% in the Phase 3 trial. It cut the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38%, compared with Keytruda alone, the companies said.
More than 1,100 patients took part. All had stage IIB to IV melanoma removed by surgery, and patients in the vaccine arm got nine doses of intismeran with Keytruda, starting 13 weeks after surgery.
The results cover the first two years after treatment. They are set to be presented on Saturday at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting in Madrid.
Moderna and Merck released the detailed data after the results leaked on an oncology website earlier in the day, and the stock fall followed the leak, Reuters reported. The companies had announced in August that the trial met its endpoints, but they gave no detailed figures then.
“This is highly statistically significant. It is not by chance,”
Analysts who follow the stock mostly blamed the trading, not the science. UBS analyst Michael Yee called the recurrence results “solid data” and said the pullback was an expected “sell the news” event. William Blair analyst Myles Minter described the data as “great.” He also said investors may now ask whether the treatment works as well in other cancers, and whether that justifies the valuation.
TD Cowen analysts called the 42% reduction “compelling” and in the “exceptional range” defined by medical experts.
Overall survival data are not yet mature. Merck and Moderna said the data show a “favorable trend,” and said they are engaging with regulatory authorities.
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