- Summit underway in Anchorage; Ukraine is not at the table. Expectations for a breakthrough are low, with analysts calling the optics a win for Moscow, according to NPR.
- Associated Press says Trump warns of “very severe consequences” if no ceasefire; the Kremlin seeks to lock in gains and keep Western troops out of Ukraine (Associated Press first mention).
- Reuters reports both sides opened with choreographed greetings as Washington tests a narrow truce path and a possible trilateral that includes Kyiv (Reuters first mention).
The Big Picture
Can an Alaska face-to-face halt the bloodshed or at least open a lane to serious talks that include Ukraine? The theater—red carpet, tarmac greetings—hides a hard reality: the gap between Russia’s maximalist asks and Ukraine’s sovereignty-first position is still wide. Even so, Washington is probing a rapid ceasefire track while the Kremlin showcases the very meeting as proof its isolation is over, according to Reuters.
What’s New
Media’s prediction on the outcome: Expectations are deliberately low. Analysts see the day as a political win for Putin unless concrete limits on strikes and a monitored pause emerge, according to NPR. The Associated Press notes Trump paired talk of a ceasefire with “very severe consequences” if Putin refuses, while Moscow views the session as a chance to cement territorial claims and bar Western troops. Plans shifted from a pure one-on-one to include senior advisers, with Washington willing to test “carrots” to draw Russia toward verifiable steps, CNN reports.
What They’re Saying
Context
What Putin demands: AP reports the Kremlin wants Kyiv to cede the regions Russia claimed in 2022, recognize Crimea as Russian, renounce NATO membership, limit its armed forces, and grant Russian co-official language status. In short: codify gains, constrain Ukraine’s future, and lock out Western troops.
What Zelenskyy demands: Any peace must be acceptable to Ukrainians and include robust security guarantees against renewed aggression. He has backed a rapid follow-up that seats Ukraine at the table and leads to a verifiable roadmap, as reported across major outlets.
What Europe wants: European leaders support diplomacy that respects sovereignty and territorial integrity and keeps Kyiv fully involved. Some U.S. officials argue Europe resists “carrots” for Moscow; European capitals counter that rewarding aggression would undercut any durable settlement, as described by CNN.
Ukraine not invited: AP highlights that Kyiv’s exclusion undercuts the West’s “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” principle. Washington has floated a subsequent three-way in Alaska with Zelenskyy; Moscow has hinted it could consider one if progress is made.
What to Expect After the Summit
- Ceasefire testing, not a grand bargain. Watch for a narrow, monitored pause—limits on missiles, drones, and strikes—paired with deconfliction channels and verification.
- A roadmap with deadlines. NPR flags a best-case where leaders agree to objectives and a timeline for structured talks, turning theater into a measurable plan.
- Sequenced incentives. Any economic or sanctions steps will be conditional and reversible (“snap-back” ready), with parallel work on guardrails and arms-control parameters.
- Fast track to a trilateral. The most constructive next step is a quick session that seats Ukraine early and locks in consent as the core legitimacy test.
The Bottom Line
The Alaska meeting won’t end the war. It can set the terms of the next phase. Treat any ceasefire as a trial with teeth—verify first, sequence any incentives, and guarantee Ukraine’s seat and consent. If today yields even a narrow lane toward a lawful, durable roadmap, the summit will have earned its headline. If not, it risks being remembered as optics without outcomes.
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