Stable figures mask deeper signs of cooling momentum and shifting worker leverage
The U.S. labor market remained effectively unchanged in May 2025, with 7.8 million job openings and little movement in hiring or quitting activity, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Why it matters
While headlines suggest a steady labor market, the underlying trend tells a more nuanced story. Flat job openings, subdued hiring, and a consistent quit rate reflect a cooling economy where both employers and employees are more cautious. For job seekers, it means fewer opportunities. For employers, it’s about retention over expansion.
Key figures
- Job Openings: 7.8 million (unchanged), with a 4.6% job openings rate.
- Hires: 5.5 million (flat), hiring rate stable at 3.4%.
- Total Separations: 5.2 million, separation rate held at 3.3% for the fifth consecutive month.
- Quits: 3.3 million, quit rate unchanged at 2.1%.
- Layoffs and Discharges: 1.6 million, with a 1.0% rate.
Industry highlights
The hospitality sector showed resilience, with job openings in accommodation and food services increasing by 314,000. Finance and insurance added 91,000 openings. Conversely, the federal government posted a 39,000 drop in open positions—hinting at potential slowdowns or budget constraints in public hiring.
Hires in the federal government also fell by 11,000, and the finance sector experienced fewer separations and layoffs, suggesting stabilization rather than aggressive recruitment or churn.
What this says about worker leverage
The quits rate—a proxy for worker confidence—remained unchanged at 2.1%. During high-growth periods, quit rates often surge as employees feel confident in their ability to find new jobs. The current steady rate may signal that workers are growing more cautious, aligning with broader macroeconomic uncertainty and limited wage growth.
Small vs. large employers
Layoffs decreased slightly for businesses with fewer than 10 employees, suggesting micro-employers are holding onto staff. At the top end, establishments with 5,000 or more workers showed no significant changes in job activity, indicating a pause in large-scale restructuring or hiring.
Revisions to April
Upward revisions to April’s data reflect ongoing recalibrations: job openings were adjusted up by 4,000 to 7.4 million, hires increased by 42,000, and quits were revised up by 21,000. These adjustments suggest prior underestimates of labor activity, but don’t dramatically alter the overall trend of stability with soft undercurrents.
Outlook for June and beyond
With inflation showing signs of easing and interest rates stabilizing, labor market conditions are unlikely to shift dramatically in the near term. However, the plateau in job mobility and employer caution may challenge recent graduates and job changers entering the second half of the year.
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(with data inputs from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
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