- The Federal Reserve releases the July FOMC minutes today (Wednesday) at 2 p.m. ET.
- In July, the Fed held rates steady; Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks Friday, Aug. 22, at the Jackson Hole symposium; markets expect elevated volatility across stocks and crypto.
The Big Picture
The FOMC minutes due at 2 p.m. ET will offer the first detailed readout of July’s policy debate as investors handicap the odds of a September rate cut. With inflation easing unevenly and labor data softening, traders are primed to parse every line for hints on timing, size, and conditions for the next move.
What’s New
The Fed left the target range unchanged at its July 29–30 meeting, but two governors—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—formally dissented, preferring a 25-basis-point cut, according to the post-meeting statement. Since then, producer inflation ran hotter than expected, with July PPI up 3.3% year over year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, complicating the case for swift easing even as growth signals cool.
In risk assets, sentiment is cautious. Bitcoin has hovered near the mid-$110,000s today as traders brace for the minutes and Powell’s remarks, as reported by Investopedia. Crypto outlets have flagged higher-than-usual volatility into the events; for example, CoinGape notes traders are focused on how the minutes frame the path to September.
REMINDER:
— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) August 20, 2025
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes drop today at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Watch the language closely! pic.twitter.com/i9Fkv9hIHI
What They’re Saying
Context
The federal funds rate has remained in a 4.25%–4.50% range since December 2024, following last year’s cumulative cuts ( Also Read). July’s split vote underscored how policymakers are weighing firmer producer prices against signs of cooling in hiring. The debate unfolds amid political pressure: President Donald Trump has urged the Fed to lower rates more quickly.
Attention now turns to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed from Aug. 21–23. This year’s theme—labor markets in transition—puts employment front and center for Powell’s keynote on Friday, Aug. 22, according to the organizers.
What’s Next
Today’s minutes arrive at 2 p.m. ET on the Fed’s public docket. Market pricing implies strong odds of a quarter-point cut in September, with CME’s FedWatch showing elevated probabilities, per Reuters. Prediction markets also lean toward easing; traders on Polymarket continue to price a meaningful chance of a September cut. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday may refine the guidance on pace and thresholds for action.
The Bottom Line
The July minutes will frame how close the Fed is to its first cut since December’s reset—and whether a larger bloc is ready to move in September. With inflation progress uneven and labor under the microscope, the tone of today’s document and Powell’s Friday remarks will likely set the market’s path into fall.
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