EU Sounds Alarm Over Russian Threat by 2028, Unveils €131B Defense Overhaul

The Big Picture

European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius has warned that Russia could be in a position to challenge NATO militarily by 2028. Speaking at the European Defence Night in Washington, D.C., Kubilius emphasized that Europe is “under threat” and must accelerate efforts to take charge of its own security and defense autonomy.

“We can’t talk about defence without talking about Ukraine,” he stressed. Kubilius cited intelligence reports and echoed concerns raised by U.S. General Alexus Grynkewich, who highlighted the risk of simultaneous global conflicts involving Russia and China by 2027.

EU Image: European Defence Night 2025 – Commissioner Andrius Kubilius speaks in Washington, D.C.

What’s New

To address the looming threats, the EU has proposed a groundbreaking €131 billion defense and space budget for the 2028–2035 period — a fivefold increase. Key initiatives include:

• “Rearm EU” program to enable €800B in member state investments
• €150B in “SAFE loans” for rapid procurement
• Omnibus industrial simplification reducing facility expansion approvals from 4 years to 2 months
• Agreement among EU NATO states to reach 3.5% of GDP in defense spending plus 1.5% in related sectors

What’s Next

Europe is preparing to launch a detailed roadmap that defines how and when it will gradually replace U.S. defense contributions on the continent. Kubilius called for strategic alignment with Washington to avoid confusion and ensure operational continuity.

Meanwhile, a new EU–Ukraine defense partnership titled “Brave Tech EU” has been launched to foster battlefield innovation and jointly develop new defense technologies. Kubilius emphasized that Ukraine will be a cornerstone of European defense infrastructure moving forward.

Bottom Line

The EU is no longer just responding to American pressure to boost military spending — it’s reacting to what it sees as a direct, accelerating threat from Moscow. The message from Kubilius is clear: Europe is not just preparing for tomorrow’s wars but positioning itself to lead in defending the Western order, with or without full U.S. support.

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