The Danish Defence Intelligence Service sees a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack on one or more NATO countries bordering it, according to a Sept. 24 assessment.
Such an attack could take place in the coming months, according to the agency, known as DDIS. It could happen while the war in Ukraine continues and before Russia has built the military capabilities needed for a regional war.
The DDIS described a limited attack as a desperate move on Russia’s part. Its aim would be to divert European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within NATO if the alliance fails to agree on a collective response.
One possible scenario would involve isolated long-range strikes on infrastructure vital to supporting Ukraine. Russia might then claim the weapons struck NATO territory only because Ukraine had jammed them, the assessment said.
The agency also raised the possibility of a so-called false flag operation, in which Russia would use Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO country.
Russia could also send a limited number of troops, possibly without national insignia, into NATO countries bordering it. Such a deployment would likely follow a buildup of regular forces near the border to counter a potential NATO response.
That buildup would require several months of preparation and would be difficult to conceal, the DDIS said.
The agency still sees no indications that Russia will launch an outright invasion of a NATO country. It described an invasion as highly unlikely but said the possibility cannot be ruled out.
If Russia decided to invade, it would likely need at least six months to prepare and build up the necessary forces, according to the assessment.
In the DDIS view, Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it judges they will not trigger a collective NATO military response and a resulting war. Russia is likely uncertain about what could set off such a war, the agency said.
That creates a risk that Moscow concludes NATO countries will not respond collectively, according to the assessment. The risk is greater if Russia believes the United States cannot or will not support European NATO countries in a potential war.
The assessment’s forecasts could not be independently verified.
Hybrid War Escalating
The DDIS also assessed that Russia will intensify its hybrid war, carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO with greater consequences for targeted countries than in the past.
These could include destructive cyberattacks that cripple critical societal functions and sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties.
According to the agency, the security situation has already deteriorated further. Russia has intensified its use of sabotage and destructive cyberattacks and is attacking targets in Europe with drones.
The assessment cited a foiled drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany, which German authorities said Russia had planned over several months.
It also said Russian drones and, in some cases, missiles have hit territory in NATO countries bordering Ukraine. The DDIS assessed that Russia has become more willing to take risks.
Until recently, Russia’s hybrid attacks in the West mainly aimed to create fear and weaken public support for aid to Ukraine, the agency said.
Russia has increasingly tried to block that support directly, including through sabotage against defense companies and railway shipments of military equipment bound for Ukraine.
In Denmark, the Danish Security and Intelligence Service, known as PET, has publicly warned that Russia is planning and preparing sabotage against defense companies on Danish soil, according to the DDIS.
Russian forces are also acting more aggressively toward NATO military units in the Baltic Sea region, the agency said.
On Sept. 14, a Russian frigate in waters off Gedser fired flares at a Danish military helicopter. The DDIS called it the most recent and most serious such incident involving Danish military units.
Russia Under Pressure
The agency said Russia is under more pressure than at any other point in its war against Ukraine.
Sustained Ukrainian long-range attacks are causing increasingly extensive damage deep inside Russia, while Russian forces are suffering heavy losses for marginal territorial gains.
The Russian economy is on the brink of a major crisis, the assessment said. It attributed that to military spending, international sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
Western economic and military support remains vital to Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian forces and raise the cost of the war for Russia, according to the DDIS.
The agency sees no prospect of Russia achieving any major breakthrough in Ukraine over the next six months. It also considers it highly unlikely that President Vladimir Putin will be willing to compromise on his fundamental war objectives.
Russia believes Europe will gradually develop an autonomous military capability that will pose an increasing threat to Russia by 2030, according to the assessment.
The coming years therefore present a window of opportunity in which Putin could conclude it is worth the risk to try to drastically change Europe’s security order, the agency said. As a result, the DDIS assessed, Putin is likely to seek to change the current trajectory.
Conditional Timelines Remain Valid
The new assessment supplements one the DDIS published Feb. 9, 2025, on the threat Russia poses to the Danish Realm.
That earlier assessment expanded on findings in the agency’s Intelligence Outlook 2024 and estimated when Russia could be ready for different types of war.
Those timelines depend on the war in Ukraine ending or becoming a frozen conflict, and on Russia’s conventional military capabilities continuing to grow while the West fails to build up its own at the same pace.
They also assume Russia concludes that the United States cannot or will not support European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia.
Under those conditions, the February 2025 assessment said, Russia could wage a local war in a neighboring country within approximately six months.
Within approximately two years, Russia could pose a credible threat to one or more NATO countries and be ready for a regional war in the Baltic Sea region. It could be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent within approximately five years.
The DDIS said those timelines remain valid. The updated assessment instead focuses on Russia’s willingness and ability to escalate against the West in the coming months, through more frequent and severe hybrid attacks or limited military attacks.
Russia could take those steps even if the war in Ukraine continues and it is not ready for a regional or large-scale war against NATO, the agency said.
Editor’s Note: AI assisted with research, organization and initial drafting. Virginia Times verified the information and is responsible for the final story.
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