Poll: California Democrats Prefer Newsom Over Harris in Early 2028 Test

The Big Picture

According to the topline release of a new summer policy survey from POLITICO, UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center, and the Possibility Lab, California Democrats would choose Gov. Gavin Newsom against former Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical contest in 2028, 25% to 19%.

The poll asked registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic from all around the state, as well as a second group of policy influencers. Pete Buttigieg has 13% of the vote, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has 10%, and a group of governors and senators has only a few percent. Enthusiasm metrics indicate a slight advantage for Newsom over Harris among voters, although policy influencers—individuals who regularly monitor government activities—currently favor Buttigieg.

What’s New

The release, which is about the presidential race in 2028, gives an early look at how well-known contenders are among California’s Democratic voters. Newsom is ahead of Harris by six points in the sample of voters. Forty-nine percent of people say they are “very” or “somewhat” happy about Newsom running, while forty-two percent say the same about Harris. Fifty-one percent say they are “not too” or “not at all” excited about Newsom, while fifty-eight percent say the same about Harris.

Buttigieg (19%) is ahead of Newsom (14%) among policy influencers who were surveyed separately. That group gives Harris 2%. Influencers are less enthused overall, with Newsom getting 39% excited and 61% not excited, and Harris getting 16% excited and 84% not excited.

What They’re Saying

Context

Harris, a former vice president and U.S. senator, and Newsom, a two-term governor who has become well-known across the country, are both well-known in the state. The results show a time when people are starting to talk about the early 2028 election, but formal campaigns are still a long way off.

Buttigieg is in third place with 13% of the vote, followed by Ocasio-Cortez with 10%. Other candidates, such as Tim Walz, Cory Booker, Ro Khanna, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Andy Beshear, Amy Klobuchar, Mark Kelly, J.B. Pritzker, and more, have between 1% and 4% of the vote. The survey was conducted from July 28 to August 12, 2025, for voters, and from July 30 to August 11, 2025, for influencers. It shows how California Democrats, Democratic-leaning independents, and a second group of policy experts feel; it is not a national poll.

What’s Next

As the 2028 cycle gets closer, the poll partners might provide more data that shows how enthusiasm and preferences change across different groups. The results suggest that there are various groups of people who are interested in the candidates: a large group of Democratic voters in California and a smaller group of policy insiders who keep a close eye on how the government works.

The Bottom Line

An early look from California Democrats shows that Newsom has a slight lead over Harris, but policy influencers are now leaning toward Buttigieg. It’s not the end; it’s the beginning.

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