The Strait of Hormuz carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas before the war. This week, Washington and Tehran both said they control it.
At least 12 ships were attacked in the week ending Oct. 16, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported late Friday. October has seen the most ship attacks since the US-Israel war on Iran began on Feb. 28, according to Al Jazeera.
Of the 12 ships, half reached port or kept going, UKMTO said. One sank. Two were disabled, and three were damaged or had no confirmed outcome.
Most attacked vessels are not reporting what happened to them. “UKMTO is struggling to accurately report true number of attacks with majority of vessels attacked refusing to report to UKMTO,” the maritime security organisation stated. It said it knew of more incidents from other sources but could not verify them.
The newest attack came on Saturday. A tanker’s master told UKMTO the vessel was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat 78 nautical miles northeast of Jubail, Saudi Arabia. The shot damaged the aft port quarter.
Oil still moves, but less of it. Flows through the strait ran at 11.6 million barrels per day over the seven days to Oct. 13, about 68 percent of the 17.1 million barrels a day recorded before the war, according to figures from Kpler. Over the last seven days UKMTO counted 125 ships leaving the strait and 129 entering it. Most were dry bulk carriers. Tanker products and general cargo came next.
Brent crude hit $110 a barrel on Friday. It had not been that high since May.
The US military tells a different story about who is in charge. Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM chief, put out a video message late Friday. Despite the attacks, he said, 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil had moved through the strait in the past week.
“Let me be clear: The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran,” Cooper said. For the rise in attacks, he pointed to “desperation” inside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Cooper said the US blockade of Iran’s southern ports has cost Tehran $25 billion in oil export income, and that the US recently seized $350 million in Iranian cryptocurrency financing, according to the statement posted by CENTCOM on X.
Tehran has not given its own count of attacked ships or of vessels passing through. It has said Washington exaggerates its numbers to project success.
The IRGC says ships keep hitting mines in the waterway, and that it is unsafe for vessels that do not coordinate with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a body set up during the war to manage passage. On Saturday, the IRGC said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude caught fire after striking a mine on an “unauthorised” route. Iran’s state-run Press TV shared footage it says showed the tanker burning.
CENTCOM said it has cleared the strait of naval mines and that ships are being struck by projectiles, not mines. On Thursday, it said the container ship M/V GFS Pride was hit by an IRGC projectile. The ship sank while being towed to shore.
Washington has not struck back over the recent ship attacks. But concerns are growing that it could escalate after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the military to stay ready to launch bigger attacks after the elections, possibly including the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the “mother of all bombs,” according to US media reports cited by Al Jazeera.
Tehran signalled on Saturday that it plans to keep attacking. Acting Defence Minister Majid Ibn Reza said Iranian missiles, not US bombs, will determine the future of the war, state media reported.
“Your bombs will explode elsewhere; in your global reputation, the US economy, and even your electoral calculations,” he was quoted as saying by state media.
Messages between the two sides still pass through regional mediators, including Pakistan and Qatar. No breakthrough in talks is expected soon.
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